In 2025, it’s not just about spring or fall. In NYC, mortgage-rate dips are the new seasons.

Spring and fall remain NYC’s traditional high seasons for sales and leasing. But in 2025, mortgage rate fluctuations are triggering activity spikes irrespective of the calendar. Meanwhile, rental demand still peaks in summer, and policy changes like City of Yes and ongoing office-to-residential projects are altering the flow of new inventory. This guide breaks down what’s changed—and what hasn’t—so you can time your move with precision.

The 2025 Reality: Classic Seasonality vs. Rate-Driven Micro-Cycles

Spring Still Strong—but Now Less Predictable

Spring remains the most active period for signed contracts in New York City. However, sellers should also monitor mortgage rate dips, which now act as wildcard triggers for market surges in months like July or January.

July 2025: A Surprising Sales Spike

In July, Manhattan recorded a 23% jump in signed contracts compared to July 2024—even though inventory barely increased (only 7.4%) for co-ops, with similar patterns in condos and 1–3 family homes. This suggests that demand remained heated despite limited supply.

  • Manhattan co-ops: New contracts rose 23%, while listings grew just 7.4%.

  • Condos: Contracts up 19.2%, listings dropped 1%.

    This dynamic suggests that buyers are striking quickly when motivated, irrespective of seasonality.   

June 2025: Momentum Builds Early

June saw the twelfth consecutive year-over-year increase in signed contracts for co-ops, condos, and single-family housing. Listings have been rising since December 2024, but at a gradually slowing pace—meaning demand is outpacing supply. 

Month-by-Month Breakdown: What’s Real in 2025

January–February

Supply remains notably low—December 2024 ended with a 16.5% drop in Manhattan listings compared to the previous month. Yet signed contracts rose 22.5% vs. December 2023. It’s a seller’s market where fewer listings meet steadier demand. 

Spring (March–June)

Historically strong, and 2025 upheld that trend. Most active sales, increased leasing, and intense buyer activity. Some early signs also suggest winter months may be gaining importance due to rate dynamics. 

Summer (July–August)

  • Sales: July shined with sharp YoY gains in Manhattan contracts, despite limited inventory. August, traditionally slower, showed signs of summer fatigue. 

  • Rentals: Summer remains dominant for rentals—if you’re a landlord, this is your moment. (Detailed rental data not in sources, but long-established in StreetEasy and Elliman reporting.)

Fall (September–October)

Still the second-strongest season. Though data isn’t specifically cited here, historical trends hold: new school year kicks off relocation purchases; inventory replenishes. Predict observers to see renewed activity.

Winter (November–December)

Seasonally cooler—listings slow, but buyers who are active are often motivated (year-end bonuses, relocation, tax moves). December 2024 was the slowest winter in five years, yet offered flexibility for serious buyers. 

Rentals vs. Sales: Different Rhythms

  • Rentals: Summer remains the rent peak—still strong in 2025 due to the city’s rental infrastructure and seasonal mobility.

  • Sales: While spring and fall still deliver the bulk of activity, 2025 shows rate-driven spikes that override seasonal norms—making market timing both more complex and potentially more opportune.

Policy & Supply Wildcards Disrupt Seasonality

  • City of Yes (Dec 2024): New zoning reforms are projected to add tens of thousands of homes, particularly through ADUs and increased density. Inventory delivery will be tied to project timelines—not to traditional seasons. 

  • Office-to-Residential Conversions: Thousands of units in the pipeline (e.g., former offices turned apartments in Midtown), driven by approvals, not calendars. 

What This Means for You

Sellers

  • Best traditional windows: Late February–June and post–Labor Day.

  • New strategy: If mortgage rates dip unexpectedly, list quickly—you may catch unexpected demand.

  • Tactic: Launch listings on Thursdays to maximize weekend visibility.

Buyers

  • Off-season advantage: August, November, and December offer less competition if you’re patient—and rates dip occasionally then, too.

  • Be rate ready: Have approvals lined up and funds ready for action when rates fall.

Investors & Landlords

  • Leasing: Position to capture summer demand for renters.

  • New projects: Follow conversion development schedules—they drive supply outside seasonal patterns.

Borough & Property Type Nuance

  • Manhattan luxury market: Less affected by mortgage rates. 2025 is showing a strong rebound in high-end sales, partly due to returning in-person work and domestic buyer interest. 

  • Co-ops: Particularly well-suited for 2025 trend—they’re more affordable, in demand, and often underlisted, giving savvy sellers and buyers leverage. 

  • Outer Borough Dynamics: Early 2025 saw Manhattan prices drop (–6.3% YoY in January), whereas Brooklyn (+4.8%), Queens (+12%), Staten Island (+11.9%) and the Bronx (+6%) all rose. Outer boroughs are hot markets—even in traditionally quiet months. 

FAQs (include after your main content)

Is spring still best to sell in NYC?

Yes—typically it’s the strongest season. However, now mortgage-rate dips can drive activity at unexpected times.

When are NYC rents highest?

Summer remains the rental season; tenants move en masse due to leases, school cycles, and job starts.

Will zoning reforms flatten seasonality?

Long term, City of Yes will increase supply—results will roll in according to project completion dates.

Data & Reading Resources

Seasonality in NYC real estate—spring blossoms and fall leaves on Manhattan streets.